MD 1306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR DELMARVA PENINSULA…NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Areas affected...Delmarva Peninsula...northern Mid Atlantic vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271843Z - 272045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may generate
consolidating outflows with gusty winds on their leading edge as
they advance eastward and southeastward into coastal areas through
5-7 PM EDT.
DISCUSSION...Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of mid/upper
troughing overspreading the region, increasing thunderstorm
development is already well underway near/east of weak surface
troughing to the lee of the Appalachians. This is largely focused
where the environment remains seasonably moist, from northern
Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania. Relatively warm mid/upper
levels with weak lapse rates, however, are still generally limiting
mixed-layer CAPE to around 1500+ J/kg. This could still increase a
bit further with additional heating this afternoon.
Deep-layer south-southwesterly mean flow and shear are rather modest
around 20-25 kts, but this could contribute to some organization of
convection as convectively generated surface cold pools gradually
consolidate. This may be accompanied by a strengthening gust front,
mainly where boundary-layer temperatures are warmest (and low-level
lapse rates steepest) across far eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula into southern New Jersey. However, peak gusts seem likely
to remain mostly below 50 kt.
..Kerr/Grams.. 06/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 38747684 39217607 39917570 39667473 39127494 38527485
38397514 37607570 37037711 38747684
