MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST AR…NORTHEAST LA…CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Areas affected...far southeast AR...northeast LA...central and
southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271921Z - 272045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a localized severe risk.
Damaging gusts are the primary hazard but severe hail is possible
too.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus
field from southern AR southeastward into MS. A few thunderstorms
have developed in the past hour across central and southwest MS
within a weakly capped airmass. Very moist/warm conditions are
indicated by surface observations early this afternoon with
temperatures rising into the lower 90s and dewpoints in the
mid-upper 70s. RAP forecast soundings show upwards of 4500 J/kg
MLCAPE over central MS with weak west to northwesterly flow in the
lowest 4 km beneath 50-kt west-northwesterly flow around 11 km (250
mb). The buoyancy/kinematic combination will support some storm
organization in the form of multicells. Localized 50-65 mph gusts
and large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter) are possible with the
more intense storms. If a small cluster can develop, a perhaps more
focused severe risk will be able to be discerned.
..Smith/Grams.. 06/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 33299212 32889219 32559203 31139123 30999092 31069040
31678932 31908919 32148915 33819023 33969065 33939116
33299212
