MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN AR INTO NORTHEASTERN LA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AR into northeastern
LA and central/southern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 272127Z - 272300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds appears to be increasing.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued soon.
DISCUSSION...Convection has recently intensified on the southern
flank/outflow from an MCV generated by prior convection across
AR/OK. The airmass downstream of these thunderstorms is extremely
unstable and very moist, with latest mesoanalysis estimating 4000+
J/kg of MLCAPE is present along/south of a weak front. While
low-level flow is modest, mid-level north-northwesterly winds do
slightly increase to around 20-30 kt per area VWPs. This may be
enough, along with the MCV circulation, to maintain convective
intensity/multicell structures as these thunderstorms spread
southeastward this evening. Scattered damaging winds will likely be
the main threat with this activity, but isolated large hail may
occur with cells developing ahead of the cluster. Given recent radar
trends, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed
soon.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...SHV...
LAT...LON 33169179 33509122 33048983 32498899 31948899 31388927
31028981 31019110 31379192 32399293 32949293 33169179
