MD 1311 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402… FOR PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Areas affected...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandles and southwestern
KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402...
Valid 272302Z - 280030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds should
increase this evening. A tornado also appears possible.
DISCUSSION...High-based convection that has spread from northeastern
NM into the northern TX/OK Panhandles is beginning to intersect
greater low-level moisture present to the east of a front. Current
expectations are for this activity to strengthen over the next few
hours as it encounters a moderately to strongly unstable airmass and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Supercells posing a threat for very
large hail appear possible in the short term (next couple of hours)
given the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates. Convection
should grow upscale into an intense but small bowing complex this
evening as a southerly low-level jet gradually strengthens, with a
focused threat for significant severe/damaging winds, some of which
could be 75+ mph.
A narrow window for a tornado may also exist this evening across the
central/eastern OK Panhandle into southwest KS and vicinity, where
LCLs are somewhat lower due to less daytime heating and
boundary-layer mixing due to cloud cover. Low-level shear and
hodograph curvature will increase through 01-02Z in tandem with the
low-level jet, and any supercell that can remain discrete could
produce a tornado across this area.
..Gleason.. 06/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35800266 36460297 36770282 37000198 37340155 37610095
37770041 37670007 36990005 36450027 36040140 35800266
