MD 1317 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
Areas affected...Portions of south-central KS into
north-central/northeastern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...
Valid 280335Z - 280500Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe/damaging winds should continue
tonight. Downstream watch issuance will probably be needed into
parts of northeastern OK.
DISCUSSION...The small bowing complex along the KS/OK border has
decreased in intensity over the past hour or so. The 00Z sounding
from LMN (Lamont OK) shows very strong MLCIN and a dry layer from
around 850 to 500 mb, which is likely hindering more robust
updrafts. The southward extent of the severe risk into central OK
should also be hindered by a substantial cap in the 850-700 mb layer
noted on the 00Z OUN sounding. Still, the threat for severe/damaging
winds up to 60-75 mph will probably continue with the ongoing
cluster in north-central OK/south-central KS in the short term given
sufficient instability and shear to maintain updraft intensity and
organization. This activity should spread east-southeastward over
the next few hours along a stalled surface front that extends into
northeastern OK. Even with some MLCIN present, a threat for
scattered damaging winds will probably continue into northeastern
OK. Accordingly, downstream watch issuance into this area will
probably be needed.
..Gleason.. 06/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37009875 37339833 37409775 37189550 36419490 35949510
35859579 35999682 36469849 37009875
