MD 1319 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WY…NE PANHANDLE…BLACK HILLS
Mesoscale Discussion 1319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023
Areas affected...eastern WY...NE Panhandle...Black Hills
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 281921Z - 282045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
near terrain favored areas thru 21 UTC (3pm MDT). The stronger
storms will be capable of large hail (1-3 inches in diameter) as
they organize into supercells during the late afternoon and early
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for most of the
discussion area.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial stages of
glaciation with thunderstorms near Douglas, WY and convective
initiation is likely northwest of Cheyenne prior to 2pm MDT.
Surface analysis indicates a moist axis extending from I-70 near the
CO/KS border northwestward to near the CO/WY/NE border and into
eastern WY. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s
east of the higher terrain wand surface dewpoints range in the 50s.
RAP-model forecast soundings show steep low-level and 700-500 mb
lapse rates (in excess of 8 deg C/km). Weak low-level upslope flow
beneath strengthening southwesterly flow in the mid to upper levels
has resulted in an elongated hodograph. The steep lapse
rates/moderate buoyancy and hodographs will strongly favor discrete
thunderstorms. Once the stronger updrafts become
established/mature, supercells capable of large to very large hail
will be possible. A brief tornado is possible late this
afternoon/early evening. Isolated severe gusts will become a more
prevalent threat later this evening as storms move farther east into
richer moisture and some storms evolve into a small cluster.
..Smith/Guyer.. 06/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 41220536 42740591 43770684 44230672 44690507 44490352
44030306 41590294 41060317 40810399 40910495 41220536
