MD 1325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST CO AND THE FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023
Areas affected...northeast CO and the Front Range
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 290239Z - 290345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...New convective development this evening may continue to
strengthen and pose an increasing risk for hail and damaging winds.
Conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch.
DISCUSSION...As of 0235 UTC, evening IR satellite imagery showed
developing thunderstorms along the CO Front Range into portions of
northeast CO. Persistent upslope flow with dewpoints holding in the
50s F is supporting moderate destabilization. While thus far
inhibition has surprised convective development, subtle forcing from
a passing 300 mb speed max and an increasing nocturnal low-level jet
may be sufficient for storm development/intensification this
evening. 40+ kt of bulk shear from the FTG VAD will favor a
supercell storm mode with any storms able to become established.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable buoyancy would support a
risk for hail and isolated damaging winds. Recent HRRR runs do show
storm development/maintains is possible into the overnight hours
lending credibility to the increasing severe risk. Conditions are
being monitored for a possible weather watch.
..Lyons/Hart.. 06/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39660215 39450232 39390275 39480405 39770444 40050461
40190471 40340468 40550450 40900376 40950312 40790235
40430207 39900215 39660215
