MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NE AND NORTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411...
Valid 290906Z - 291030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 411
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail (2+ inches) and 60-75 mph
severe wind gusts will likely continue with a supercell/small
cluster moving eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell along the NE/KS border has
produced very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and significant
severe/damaging winds across far southern NE over the past 1-2
hours. The airmass downstream of this supercell will remain very
favorable for continued convective organization/intensity, as strong
MUCAPE overlaps enhanced deep-layer shear. A 50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet and related warm/moist advection
feeding into this convection will also aid the maintenance of
intense updrafts. Very large hail (2+ inches) will remain a concern
in the short term with this supercell. Recent velocity data from
KUEX also shows strong inbound velocities along the NE/KS border.
Ample DCAPE and steep lapse rates aloft should allow for a continued
threat of severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph as these
thunderstorms spread eastward across south-central NE and
north-central KS over the next couple of hours. Additional
thunderstorms have developed farther east of this supercell in the
strong low-level warm advection regime. This activity may also pose
a threat for large hail if it strengthens further and acquires
supercell characteristics.
..Gleason.. 06/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40359951 40519894 40529689 40339636 39959613 39599643
39609794 39659915 39819957 40359951
