MD 1331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO…EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KS…FAR SOUTHERN IA…AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Areas affected...Portions of northern MO...extreme northeastern
KS...far southern IA...and far west-central IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 291018Z - 291215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely
be needed to address and increasing threat for damaging winds and
large hail as thunderstorms spread eastward this morning.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells capable of producing very large
hail and severe/damaging winds are ongoing early this morning across
southeastern NE into north-central KS. A strongly unstable airmass
is present downstream of these thunderstorms along/near a surface
front that is draped east-west along/near the IA/MO border. MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg across this area is being supported by steep
mid-level lapse rates and a moist low-level airmass. A belt of
modestly enhanced mid-level flow also extends from the
northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest on the southern
periphery of an upper trough. A veering/strengthening wind profile
with height through mid levels is shown in recent VWPs from
KTOP/KEAX, along with a 35-50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.
35-45+ kt of effective bulk shear will support continued updraft
organization and intensity, with supercells and a large hail threat
remaining possible.
Most high-resolution guidance suggests that a small bowing cluster
will consolidate along or perhaps just south of the IA/MO border in
northern MO. This cluster should pose an increasing threat for
severe/damaging winds as it spreads eastward across this area and
towards the MS River through the morning. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance will likely be needed downstream of the ongoing supercells
across northern MO and vicinity.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40059528 40619567 40759479 40719186 40409114 39919091
39469138 39479490 40059528
