MD 1335 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414… FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY…PARTS OF ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN INDIANA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Areas affected...western and central Kentucky...parts of adjacent southeastern Illinois...southern Indiana and middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414... Valid 291436Z - 291630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414 continues. SUMMARY...Some uncertainty lingers, but the ongoing developing cluster of storms may be maintained and become better organized with increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts while tending to propagate south-southeastward through midday. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of an additional severe weather watch or two to the south and perhaps southeast of WW 414. DISCUSSION...Within modest northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, stronger convection is currently tending to propagate south/southwesterly, aided by elevated inflow inflow of seasonably moist air with large potential instability emanating from the middle Mississippi Valley. On the western flank of the primary evolving convective system, strengthening surface outflow appears to be in the process of advancing across and south of the Evansville IN/Owensboro Ky areas, as southerly near-surface inflow begins to destabilize ahead of it, across western Kentucky and Tennessee. While warming above both the elevated and developing unstable near surface inflow may tend to increase inhibition, cold pool strengthening and associated lift coupled with continuing insolation may counter this. If vigorous convective development is maintained, vertical shear for boundary-layer based storms appears sufficiently strong to support further organization and increasing potential for damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 38128674 37468568 36098544 35908711 37688814 38128674
