MD 1347 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292349Z - 300115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may be materializing east of Tornado
Watch 419 as an MCS is organizing in extreme western NE. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the next hour or so if the MCS
continues to intensify.
DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells across eastern WY have
recently aggregated into a loosely organized MCS across the NE
Panhandle. 7+ C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates precede this newly
developed MCS, and are overspreading surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s, yielding over 2000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE. The buoyancy
coincides with well over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, derived
primarily from elongated, nearly straight hodographs (based on RAP
forecast soundings). While the aforementioned CAPE/deep-shear
parameter space would favor continued MCS organization and
intensification, low-level shear is relatively weak, raising
questions regarding how prolific the accompanying severe wind threat
will become. Nonetheless, severe gusts could become common enough to
warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance, which may be needed in
the next few hours pending continued MCS intensification.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/29/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
LAT...LON 42950278 42920145 42620035 42059979 41539966 41310007
41160097 41150178 41180217 41270255 42950278
