MD 1352 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1352
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023
Areas affected...western into central and northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 300454Z - 300700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across central KS in
association with intensifying thunderstorms. Severe wind/hail would
be the main concerns. Convective trends are being monitored for the
need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
DISCUSSION...A relatively weak, disorganized MCS is progressing
across KS, with a small, embedded MCV noted in Ness County. Ahead of
the MCS is a strengthening low-level jet, with 20+ kts of southerly
flow supporting warm-air/moisture advection to an 850 mb jet
terminus/boundary located along the KS/NE border. Given the presence
of widespread 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (and corresponding 2000
J/kg MUCAPE), along with 30 kts of 0-3 km shear (per 04Z
mesonanalysis), some potential exists for convective elements within
the MCS to intensify, with cellular modes supporting severe hail. If
stronger storm cores can aggregate and support a developing cold
pool, severe winds will also be possible. However, given the
conditional nature of convective upscale growth, convective trends
will continue to be monitored before a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
proposed.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38139962 38699955 39129922 39629851 39929759 40049661
39849578 39529544 39219533 38849548 38559621 38279740
38039868 38009919 38139962
