MD 1357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1357 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301928Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increasing and gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through 4-6 PM CDT may pose some risk for severe hail and wind. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly shifting into/across the southern Rockies, an influx of moisture from the subtropical latitudes is contributing to conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles above a remnant elevated mixed-layer across southern/eastern New Mexico into Western Texas. At the same time, an area of mid/upper forcing for ascent continues to shift north-northeastward across this region, near the entrance region of the strong high-level jet nosing northeast of the southern Rockies through the central high plains. Beneath this regime, a moist and deepening mixed boundary-layer is becoming characterized by moderately large CAPE around 1500 J/kg, with mid-level inhibition weakening sufficiently to allow for the initiation of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development. This is occurring along weak lee surface troughing, which models suggest will become the focus for increasing thunderstorm development through 21-23Z. Embedded within rather modest (20-25 kt) south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow and shear, the environment does not appear particularly conducive to well-organized severe storm development. However, aided by steep lapse rates, initial strengthening storms may pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong downbursts, with weaker surface gusts then becoming more widespread on consolidating northeastward and eastward advancing outflows. ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34290339 35460195 34560121 32820238 32650362 34290339
