MD 1361 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023
Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 302237Z - 010000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue to increase across parts of
southwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening, and a watch issuance is
likely.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convective initiation is underway across parts
of southwestern Kansas this afternoon -- where some increase in
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the
Rockies is overspreading a moist/unstable air mass. While low-level
flow is quite weak, a belt of strengthening midlevel southwesterlies
will contribute to 40-50 kt of effective shear. This wind profile,
coupled with moderate surface-based instability, will support a few
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing large hail and locally
damaging gusts. With time, an additional cluster of severe storms
will approach the area from southeastern CO, posing a risk of severe
winds as well. Current thinking is that a watch will be needed to
cover both rounds of convection this afternoon/evening.
..Weinman/Hart.. 06/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37060050 37030141 37080189 37330198 37800200 38090187
38360139 38710067 39000014 39059963 38969924 38569913
37999909 37519917 37269962 37060050
