MD 1367 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023
Areas affected...Portions of central/southern IN into
northern/central KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 010558Z - 010830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds may
persist for a few more hours early this morning. The need for a
watch remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A few multicells and marginal supercells have recently
strengthened across parts of southern IN and far northern KY. These
thunderstorms are probably being aided by ascent associated with a
30-40 kt mid-level speed max advancing eastward across the OH
Valley, and a 20-30 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet. A narrow
corridor of rich low-level moisture and uncontaminated warm sector
is present along/south of this ongoing convection. Around 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will probably support continued thunderstorm
intensity for at least a few more hours this morning, even with some
boundary-layer convective inhibition present. Deep-layer shear
appears marginal (generally 25-35 kt) for organized convection. But,
given the modest organization of the ongoing activity, it should be
enough to support some threat for severe thunderstorms. An isolated
threat for severe hail should exist with the more discrete
convection given the presence of fairly steep mid-level lapse rates.
Occasional damaging winds may also occur with any small clusters
that can be sustained as they spread generally east-southeastward.
The need for a watch remains uncertain given the fairly isolated
nature of the severe risk, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 39868592 39018478 38328380 37558417 37428495 37448594
37658690 38128777 38628730 39718695 39868592
