MD 1381 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central KS and central MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012330Z - 020200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The severe-storm risk may increase during the next few
hours. Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are the main
concern.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations indicate a confluence zone
extending from east-central KS into central MO this afternoon --
where increasingly agitated cumulus and isolated storm development
is underway. Continued diurnal destabilization of a moist boundary
layer (middle 60s dewpoints) in the confluence zone should support a
gradual uptick in storm coverage during the next few hours. While
deep-layer shear is not particularly strong, a unidirectional wind
profile with around 30 kt of midlevel flow (sampled by the EAX VWP)
could promote brief updraft organization. Initially, discrete/
semi-discrete storms could favor marginally severe hail and locally
damaging gusts. With time, deep-layer flow/shear oriented parallel
to the confluence zone along with storm splits/mergers could yield a
couple clusters capable of severe winds. Current thinking is that
any severe risk may remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37679526 37839552 38119564 38469555 38559530 38779443
38949373 39049330 39179291 39319253 39239223 38899199
38629195 38409209 38229230 37989281 37689390 37619472
37679526
