MD 1388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PA AND NORTHWESTERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Jul 02 2023
Areas affected...eastern PA and northwestern NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021924Z - 022100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and a
tornado or two are possible across portions of eastern Pennsylvania
and northwestern NJ. A watch may may be needed in the next 1-2
hours.
DISCUSSION...Some deeper cumulus is apparent across eastern
Pennsylvania on visible satellite imagery, and some deeper
convection has already developed in central Pennsylvania, with some
mid-level mesocyclones apparent on the KCCX WSR-88D. Per
mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecasts, these storms are in an
environment of modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear
(30-40 kts of effective bulk shear). Additionally, the KCCX VWP
shows approximately 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH for an eastward
storm-motion, which may support a tornado threat in areas with
sufficient low-level CAPE for updraft stretching. With time, storms
may cluster upscale with some wind-damage potential. Trends are
being monitored, and a watch may be issued.
..Supinie/Grams.. 07/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 39897697 40107753 40537787 40947790 41217772 41407738
41797593 41787536 41607503 41427474 41067453 40837457
40387491 40177530 39867610 39877671 39897697
