MD 0014 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 1…3… FOR NORTHERN LA…SOUTHEAST AR…NORTHWEST MS…EXTREME SOUTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Northwest MS...Extreme
southwest TN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...3...
Valid 030231Z - 030400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1, 3 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a a couple of tornadoes
will continue into the late evening, and potentially spread east of
WW 3. A new watch may be issued to replace part of WW 1 prior to
03Z.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, a long-lived embedded supercell is moving
northeastward across southeast AR toward the MS river and northwest
MS, while a pair of small bowing segments are moving across
northeast LA. The KNQA VWP continues to indicate a favorable wind
profile for organized convection, with strong low-level shear/SRH.
The thermodynamic environment is being adversely affected by
widespread convection and precipitation, but seasonably rich
low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient
for maintenance of ongoing convection and a continued threat of
locally damaging wind and a tornado or two.
Farther west, organized convection has redeveloped from far east TX
into northwest LA, with strong low-level and deep-layer shear still
noted in the KSHV VWP. One or more bowing segments and/or embedded
supercells may evolve out of this developing storm cluster, which
would pose a threat of locally damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes into the late evening and potentially the overnight hours.
With some severe threat expected to continue into late tonight,
portions of WW 1 will likely be replaced with a new watch prior to
the 03Z expiration time. Also, new watch issuance is possible to the
east of WW 3, if short-term trends support a severe threat into
northwest MS with ongoing convection.
..Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 31579138 31749257 32549353 34079173 35479016 35338928
31579138
