MD 0140 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023
Areas affected...far western KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090238Z - 090445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some risk for damaging gusts may develop over mainly
portions of far western KY through this evening.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates storms have intensified during
the past 30-60 minutes across far southeast MO. Surface analysis
shows temperatures/dewpoints have warmed into the lower 60s over
northern parts of western TN and into the mid-upper 50s at Paducah.
The northward theta-e advection within the arching warm frontal zone
over western KY/middle TN has led to weak buoyancy developing across
the lower OH Valley. Around 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE is located across
this region according to RAP 0-hr forecast soundings and objective
analysis. Given the veering and very strong flow fields from just
above the surface through the mid troposphere, it seems this
evolving line segment near the MS River may yield a risk for
damaging gusts over the next couple of hours across western KY.
..Smith/Grams.. 02/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36948916 37398841 37318802 37028794 36788820 36318942
36948916
