MD 1400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023
Areas affected...Portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern
New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 031707Z - 031900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be
capable of strong/damaging winds and small to marginally severe
hail. A watch is probable for parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic
into southern New England.
DISCUSSION...Surface heating within the Poconos has led to deepening
cumulus early this afternoon. At least subtle forcing from a
weakening mid-level trough will likely initiate widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Temperatures are already
into the lower 80s F across northern New Jersey, northeast
Pennsylvania, and the lower Hudson Valley (ahead of RAP forecast
temperatures). Continued heating could support around 1000 to
locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Mid-level winds should be sufficient for
around 35 kts of effective shear. Organized convection will pose a
risk of primarily damaging winds with small to isolated marginally
severe hail. A watch is probable for parts of the region this
afternoon.
..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40517556 40717632 41267628 41857598 42137539 42447447
42037349 41097359 40517556
