MD 1404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023
Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031756Z - 032000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Strong buoyancy ahead of an MCV will support damaging
downburst winds as storm coverage increases this afternoon. A watch
is possible for parts of the North Carolina Coastal Plain.
DISCUSSION...A weak MCV is moving into central/eastern North
Carolina. Cumulus are deepening ahead of this feature. Surface
temperatures have risen into the low/mid 90s F with dewpoints
holding generally in the mid 70s F. This strongly buoyant airmass
(near 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) will support potential for damaging
downburst winds. Mid-level winds are much weaker this far south and
area VAD winds do not indicate much enhancement from the MCV itself.
As such, storms may be relatively intense but not substantially
organized. A watch is possible for parts of the Coastal Plain region
this afternoon.
..Wendt/Grams.. 07/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34437938 34807953 35367946 36007909 36137797 35967691
35857632 35247656 34807741 34467829 34267914 34437938
