MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NE…SOUTHEASTERN SD…SOUTHWESTERN MN…AND NORTHWESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023
Areas affected...portions of northeastern NE...southeastern
SD...southwestern MN...and northwestern IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032048Z - 032245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected during the next few
hours. Local wind gusts and small hail are possible. Watch issuance
is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have developed along a cold front
draped from south-central MN west-southwestward along the SD/NE
border. The front continues to slowly sag southward, with the
environment along and ahead of it generally characterized by MLCAPE
around 2000+ J/kg and effective shear around 15 kts. Current VAD and
short-term forecast profiles depict modest low-level shear with
little shear above the boundary layer. While the primary belt of
mid-level flow resides farther north, sufficient boundary-layer
mixing should support continued updraft development and maturation
through the afternoon. Multicell/pulse evolution is expected given
the overall meager kinematic environment. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and relatively high cloud bases might support local gusty
winds and small hail prior to a general weakening trend closer to
sunset.
..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44139702 44389631 44779569 44809496 44429447 43929421
43469433 43059485 42639599 42379755 42179863 42099942
42319997 42910045 43560027 43849946 43919818 44139702
