MD 0142 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHEAST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023
Areas affected...northern MO into southeast IA
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 090858Z - 091400Z
SUMMARY...Rain changing to snow will spread across northern Missouri
into southeast Iowa early this morning. Snowfall rate may approach 1
inch per hour at times.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with a compact shortwave
trough will lift northeast across the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley early
this morning. Furthermore, a band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis
oriented across northern MO/southern IA will result in increasing
precipitation this morning, within the warm conveyor north of a
midlevel low. While surface temperatures will hover near freezing
(30-34 degrees), large-scale ascent through a deep saturated layer,
and a sufficient dendritic growth zone, should allow for rain
changing to snow after 10z. The dendritic growth layer is somewhat
shallow and rather high aloft, which may limit snowfall efficiency
some. Nevertheless, localized areas of near 1 inch per hour snowfall
rate are possible in the 10-14z time frame across parts of northern
MO into southeast IA.
..Leitman.. 02/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41139355 41729263 41959188 41989136 41669118 41169131
40529170 40009233 39629301 39379373 39399444 39589469
40149456 40409438 40749405 41139355
