MD 1421 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Tue Jul 04 2023
Areas affected...much of central/eastern Nebraska into
northern/western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 041917Z - 042145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form later this afternoon from
northeast Nebraska along an outflow boundary southwestward into
Kansas within the surface trough. Both damaging winds and hail will
be likely.
DISCUSSION...Surface map depicts an outflow boundary from northwest
IA into far northeast NE, with a surface trough extending
southwestward into northwest KS. Low-level lapse rates continue to
steepen with strong heating over KS, and this warming air mass will
gradually spread into southern NE. Moisture is plentiful across the
entire area, with dewpoints generally ranging from 65 in the hot air
to around 70 into eastern NE.
Substantial cumulus fields are developing both in the cooler/moist
stationary front/modifying outflow boundary regime over NE, and near
the heated trough into western/northwestern KS. Continued heating
and convergence along the boundaries will likely lead to scattered
storms by late afternoon. Steep lapse rates will favor strong
outflow winds, with veering winds with height and marginal supercell
profiles favor large damaging hail.
..Jewell/Grams.. 07/04/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39820040 40519983 41259944 41969875 42389799 42499760
42389690 42049669 41329691 40399756 39449817 38889887
38639947 38510006 38340123 38530146 38770155 39250102
39820040
