MD 1437 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northwest TX into the TX Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 060547Z - 060715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for severe winds may persist as thunderstorms spread southeastward. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A small cluster is ongoing across parts of the western TX Panhandle. A recent measured severe gust up to 78 mph was recorded at a West TX Mesonet site in Parmer County TX with this activity. Some threat for severe/damaging should continue in the short term as these thunderstorms spread southeastward towards and north of Lubbock. A 25-35 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet may aid in thunderstorm maintenance by providing a continued source of lift and warm/moist advection. A fairly favorable thermodynamic environment is present downstream, with around 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Recent radar reflectivity data also show an outflow boundary moving southwestward in advance of the cluster. This boundary's interaction and impact with the ongoing thunderstorms remains unclear. But, there is some chance it may act to undercut and weaken new updrafts on the northern flank. Regardless, trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB... LAT...LON 34340268 34690199 34510016 33620042 33420203 34340268
