MD 1441 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Areas affected...Arklatex
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061713Z - 061915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A thunderstorm complex is moving eastward into the area.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon, with
the primary threats being locally damaging wind gusts and hail.
DISCUSSION...An area of ongoing and developing thunderstorms is
currently moving through southeastern OK into the Arklatex region,
with local MESH cores recently exceeding 1". The storms are
generally propagating east-southeastward along a cold front, which
is being convectively reinforced in central/southern OK by the
system's cold pool. Convective redevelopment across southeastern OK
-- and surface temperatures warming into the mid-/upper-80s -- are
evidence of negligible remaining MLCIN as of 17z. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg currently resides in the Arklatex region, which is
expected to increase gradually throughout the afternoon. Vertical
wind shear is rather meager but should gradually strengthen during
the next few hours, perhaps to around 15 kts of 0-6-km shear by 20z.
In line with the destabilizing environment, numerical guidance
depicts increasing convective coverage through peak diurnal heating.
Increasing shear amidst steadily steepening lapse rates (to around
7.5 C/km in the lowest 3 km AGL) could foster sporadic damaging wind
gusts and small hail with the strongest storms by mid-afternoon.
Overall severe coverage appears rather limited, and watch issuance
is not anticipated.
..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 32219282 32309356 32719468 33289536 33969555 34629545
35179483 35269372 34979269 34149176 33259113 32539139
32159191 32219282
