MD 1442 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Areas affected...eastern NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 061913Z - 062115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
eastern NM, posing a threat mainly for sporadic wind gusts. Watch
issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Diurnal mixing is supporting deeper convection
initiation attempts along the Sacramento and Sandia-Manzano
Mountains in central NM. A couple of anvils are beginning to spread
east-southeastward, indicative of modest westerly upper-level flow
impinging upon the area. Current analysis suggests some inhibition
remains along and to the east of the terrain, which may temper
short-term initiation attempts. Diurnal heating and mixing will
support moistening atop deepening boundary layers, resulting in
increased deep convection potential in the next few hours. Effective
shear around 30-40 kts is anticipated this afternoon, yielding
straight hodographs throughout the area. This could support
semi-organized convection moving off of the higher terrain into
eastern NM in the next few hours. Should this occur, localized
stronger downdrafts could yield sporadic gusty winds amidst deep,
well-mixed boundary layers. The overall threat will be tempered by
diminishing potential buoyancy aloft, and watch issuance is not
anticipated this afternoon and evening.
..Flournoy/Grams.. 07/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32550368 32360432 32380516 32670548 33410561 34180553
35380523 35860481 36000403 35730315 34850271 33720285
32910325 32550368
