MD 1445 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Areas affected...parts of central and southeastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062259Z - 070100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development, initially including
isolated supercells posing a risk for large, damaging hail and
potential for tornadoes, appears possible as early as 6-8 PM MDT.
Trends are being monitored for an additional severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...A surface low has been in the process of developing to
the east of Pueblo, where sustained 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure
falls have been occurring. While insolation and downslope flow have
contributed to a deepening well-mixed boundary layer around La
Junta, an upslope component into the southern slopes of the Palmer
Divide is maintaining boundary-layer moisture. This appears to be
contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Latest
objective analysis suggests that mid-level inhibition is becoming
increasingly negligible where stronger low-level convergence is
focused, roughly north of Lamar into the Limon vicinity.
Pronounced veering of winds with height, beneath 30-50+ kt flow in
the 500-300 mb layer across this region, is contributing to strong
deep-layer shear supportive of supercells if and when thunderstorm
development initiates. This appears possible as early as 00-02Z,
and stronger convection may be accompanied by a risk for large,
damaging hail, and potential for tornadoes as a southerly low-level
jet strengthens further across southeastern Colorado.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39140434 38930262 38280221 38010261 38280324 38720454
39140434
