MD 1448 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 455… FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Thu Jul 06 2023
Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and adjacent portions of
southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 455...
Valid 070258Z - 070500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 455 continues.
SUMMARY...An intense supercell, posing a continuing risk for large
hail, potential for a tornado or two, and severe wind gusts,
probably will be maintained across and south-southeast of the Lamar
CO vicinity through 10-11 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...While the deep-layer shear is strong, ambient westerly
mean flow appears a rather modest 20 kt, allowing for a rather
pronounced rightward (southward) deviate motion to the large ongoing
supercell approaching the Lamar vicinity. In the presence of
modestly strengthening southeasterly flow around 850 mb mb (25-30
kt), this is contributing to strong southerly near-surface updraft
inflow, roughly aligned with a baroclinic zone earlier enhanced by
strong differential surface heating. The boundary-layer along this
frontal zone, extending southeast of the Lamar area into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, remains characterized by moderately
large CAPE and likely to maintain intense convective development.
This may continue to include a well-defined supercell structure on
the southern/southwestern flank of an upscale growing cluster.
..Kerr.. 07/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38540257 38480195 37450152 37140197 37180284 38220332
38260263 38540257
