MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN SD…SOUTHEASTERN ND…AND NORTHERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 07 2023
Areas affected...parts of northeastern SD...southeastern ND...and
northern MN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 071913Z - 072115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic marginally severe hail, a few severe gusts, and a
landspout or two may occur this afternoon across northeastern South
Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota. A
watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along a cold front across
northern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northern
Minnesota this afternoon. Ahead of the front is a modifying outflow
air mass from convection this morning, with temperatures in the mid
70s F and dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Along the front, an
environment exists with ample vertical vorticity and 150 J/kg of 0-3
km MLCAPE per mesoanalysis. This may yield a few landspout tornadoes
with initial isolated cells along the front. Additionally, some
marginally severe hail may occur. With time, expect cold pools to
congeal into a few loosely organized clusters with some potential
for damaging gusts. Storm longevity may be limited by stable
unmodified outflow air to the south.
..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/07/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 46529884 47539636 47969486 48099391 47959268 47319274
46529396 45789643 45339765 44509956 43880047 43630134
43900192 44280211 44830213 45230204 45800166 46239994
46529884
