MD 1465 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Sat Jul 08 2023
Areas affected...Western and Middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082129Z - 082330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms will be capable of
scattered damaging winds through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving through Western and
Middle Tennessee has a history produced reports of 60 mph winds and
penny size hail. Daytime heating and dew points in the upper 60s to
mid 70s have supported MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Given weak flow
aloft and deep layer shear around 20 kts, storm mode will likely
remain clustered. RAP sounding analysis shows deep saturation with
large CAPE throughout, supporting potential for wet microbursts and
damaging winds. Given the weak flow and shear for organization, a
watch is unlikely to be needed at this time.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/08/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35178734 35168738 35148757 35148779 35188803 35218819
35298844 35368852 35508862 35698870 35928858 36078828
36158785 36168746 36298720 36418697 36538686 36628676
36668673 36658615 36578574 36278541 36148533 36018527
35868527 35698538 35498558 35388587 35298608 35238630
35208652 35198685 35178734
