MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 AM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023
Areas affected...portions of southeast OK into north TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464...
Valid 091134Z - 091300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong gusts to 40-60 mph and near 1 inch diameter hail
will be possible in the short term, with severe potential
diminishing with southeast extent.
DISCUSSION...The MCS moving east/southeast across southeast OK/north
TX as become less organized over the past hour or so. This is likely
due to a combination of convection moving away from the southerly
low-level jet to the west and into an area of weaker
instability/strong surface-based inhibition. Nevertheless, modest
MUCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will maintain
convection with southeast extent. Measured wind gusts have been
lower over the past hour, with max speeds generally around 45-55 mph
noted in regional surface observations. Severe potential is expected
to diminish with eastward extent over the next 1-2 hours, though
locally strong to severe gusts are still possible in the short term.
Additionally, a couple of instances of near 1 inch in diameter hail
may occur as well.
..Leitman.. 07/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35259589 35039471 34339443 33129474 32939583 32899706
33069791 33439802 34109703 34779633 35209606 35259589
