MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ID AND WESTERN MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
Areas affected...Portions of eastern ID and western MT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102007Z - 102230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this
afternoon. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the
main concerns.
DISCUSSION...Low-topped thunderstorms are gradually increasing in
coverage across the higher terrain in eastern ID and far western MT
-- aided by broad large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave trough
over the Pacific Northwest. During the next couple hours, continued
diurnal heating amid cloud breaks should yield weakly unstable
surface-based inflow for this activity. A belt of around 30-kt
midlevel southwesterly flow (per regional VWP) accompanying the
shortwave trough should support brief updraft organization and an
attendant risk of marginally severe hail and locally severe gusts
with the stronger/longer-lived cores. The severe risk is expected to
remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 45161148 44891234 44771299 44741352 44831402 45091444
45491471 45991485 46531485 47041462 47361430 47671382
47781339 47881267 47791211 47661172 47261121 46561096
45931093 45391113 45161148
