MD 1501 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH DAKOTA…NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Areas affected...South Dakota...Northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 120434Z - 120530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted soon to account for convection spreading/developing east across South Dakota/northern Nebraska. Hail/wind are the primary risks. DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough over eastern MT is beginning to dig southeast toward the western Dakotas. Considerable amount of convection has developed ahead of this feature and currently extends from northeast WY into northern SD. While an MCS has not fully matured over this region, a weak MCV may be developing northeast of RAP which may encourage upscale growth over the next few hours into central SD, especially as LLJ strengthens in response to the approaching short wave. Several severe supercells persist across the Black Hills region and these are likely generating large hail. With time, some wind threat may develop if an MCS actually materializes across this region. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 05z. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45210201 43949706 42179767 43350308 45210201
