MD 0151 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI…SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023
Areas affected...parts of central and northern Louisiana and
Mississippi...southeastern Arkansas...southwestern Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152341Z - 160245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...There appears some potential for isolated supercells
capable of producing tornadoes in a corridor across central
Louisiana through central Mississippi into this evening. More
widespread thunderstorm development with increasing severe weather
potential appears more probable in a corridor from northern
Louisiana into northern Mississippi and adjacent portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley during the 8-11 PM CST time frame.
DISCUSSION...A weakness in mid-level inhibition around the 700 mb
level appears to be allowing for the initiation of scattered
thunderstorms in a corridor roughly from Alexandria, LA through the
Jackson, MS area, where warm sector boundary-layer destabilization
is peaking. Objective analysis suggests that CAPE may range from
1000-2000 J/kg, in the presence of strong deep layer shear beneath
40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500 mb. Beneath southerly
850 mb flow around 30+ kt, low-level hodographs appear moderately
large and clockwise curved. This environment appears potentially
conducive to supercell development with a risk for tornadoes during
the next hour or two. However, it remains unclear if this initial
convection will be sustained after dark, once near-surface cooling
increases convective inhibition.
There appears better potential for new thunderstorm activity to
initiate along a corridor farther to the north, roughly across parts
of northern Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and northern
Mississippi, coincident with a strengthening south-southwesterly
low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb) through the 02-05Z time
frame. This may be aided by forcing associated with strengthening
divergence aloft, between coupled upper-level speed maxima migrating
around the periphery of the subtropical ridge centered over the
Caribbean/Bahamas.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 33009370 34039253 34629127 35228947 33608879 32388901
32148973 31199157 31129301 33009370
