MD 1510 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023
Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130121Z - 130315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible through the
evening, with a threat of large hail and localized strong/severe
gusts.
DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed across the
NE Panhandle, with 2-inch hail recently reported northeast of
Scottsbluff. While buoyancy is not overly strong, with MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses, deep-layer shear is quite
favorable (effective shear of 50+ kt), and the ongoing supercell may
continue to propagate along a weak surface boundary into
west-central NE. Hail (possibly very large in the short term) will
be the primary threat, though localized strong/severe gusts will
also be possible.
With the short-term threat expected to remain quite isolated, watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely. Some increase in storm
coverage is possible later tonight within a modest low-level warm
advection regime, though it remains unclear as to whether any
organized upscale growth (with a corresponding increase in
severe-wind risk) will occur.
..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...
LAT...LON 42280337 42200314 41950135 41659972 40959931 40819959
40860110 40930174 41190296 41350334 41700363 41950368
42280337
