MD 1513 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479… FOR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST MO…NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK…EXTREME NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023
Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest
MO...North-central/northeast OK...Extreme northwest AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...
Valid 130402Z - 130600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across WW 479,
and may eventually spread south of the watch overnight.
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing
late this evening from southeast KS into southwest/central MO.
Earlier storms east of Kansas City produced measured wind gusts of
60-70 mph and some hail, but that area of storms subsequently
weakened as it moved eastward into parts of central MO in the
immediate wake of an earlier storm cluster.
Farther west, a potentially severe cell is ongoing across Bourbon
County, KS, with additional development noted as far southwest as
extreme north-central OK. With a modest low-level jet expected to
remain focused across southeast KS/southwest MO, intense storms
capable of hail and severe gusts will remain possible across this
area into the overnight hours, in the presence of strong buoyancy
and favorable deep-layer shear. Some organized upscale growth
remains possible, which could eventually result in a severe threat
spreading into parts of northeast OK and northwest AR. MLCINH is
notably stronger farther southwest into northern OK, but short-term
forecast soundings suggest weaker CINH for storms based around 800
mb in this area, and a few stronger elevated cells/clusters could
evolve overnight.
Given the potential for strong to potentially severe storms to
develop and/or move into northern OK and northwest AR, watch
issuance downstream of WW 479 is possible later tonight.
..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...
LAT...LON 37019866 38049683 38949471 38679242 38179152 37659147
37109178 36779237 36079437 36039805 36259871 36649875
36829875 37019866
