MD 1519 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023
Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO and far western KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 131809Z - 132015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A gradual increase in severe-storm potential is expected
during the next couple of hours across parts of eastern CO, and
eventually into far western KS. A watch will be needed for parts of
the area shortly.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate gradual boundary-layer destabilization across
parts of eastern CO -- where moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow
(upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) are in place beneath an EML
plume/steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, isolated convective
initiation is underway along the edge of remnant outflow from
earlier thunderstorms in eastern CO. While lingering capping at the
base of the EML and antecedent boundary-layer static stability could
limit the coverage of storm development in the short-term, continued
heating and increasing instability should allow for a gradual
increase in development during the next couple of hours.
Around 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly
straight hodograph) and the aforementioned destabilization will
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail and damaging winds. While less certain, a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out given the rich/sheltered boundary-layer moisture
and discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode. A watch will likely be
needed for parts of the area shortly.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39350436 39860426 40130397 40290365 40330324 40310273
40270217 40110191 39810165 38910170 37970190 37420200
37110229 37090354 37210396 37550417 38000432 38840437
39350436
