MD 1553 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485… FOR NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022
Areas affected...north central into northeastern North Dakota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...
Valid 230220Z - 230415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.
SUMMARY...Near-term risk for severe hail, locally strong surface
gusts, and perhaps some potential for a tornado, probably will
transition to primarily a swath of strong to severe wind gusts
across the Devils Lake into Grand Forks vicinities through 11 pm-1
am CDT. Areas to the east of WW 485 are being monitored for an
additional severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Outflow emanating from initial thunderstorms appeared
to aid recent storm development to the south of the international
border. Coupled with lift associated with strengthening warm
advection, this appears likely to maintain vigorous convection at
least another several hours. Beneath 30-50 kt west-northeasterly
flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear is strong, with storm motion
allowing for the development of strong southeasterly near surface
inflow emanating from a boundary-layer still characterized by CAPE
on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Given sizable temperature/dew point spreads evident in model
forecast soundings, large hail and strong surface gusts still appear
the primary potential severe hazards with the large supercell now
passing to the north/northeast of Minot. Gradually, the environment
seems likely to support at least some further upscale growth, with a
continuing propagation along/north of a surface frontal zone across
the Devils Lake vicinity into the Grand Forks area by 04-06Z,
accompanied by a swath of strong to severe wind gusts.
..Kerr.. 07/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48260137 48360089 48780025 48869913 48209728 47369839
47500018 48260137
