MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35…36… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AR INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023
Areas affected...Portions of north-central AR into
south-central/southeastern MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...36...
Valid 160826Z - 161000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35, 36
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail, damaging winds, and a tornado
should continue for the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A couple of supercells embedded within a broken
convective line are ongoing across north-central AR as of 0825Z.
This activity is occurring within a strongly sheared low-level
environment associated with a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet.
Effective SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 will continue to support updraft
rotation and a near-term tornado threat centered over north-central
AR. This convection will likely remain surface based or nearly so
with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg present along/east of a front. Strong
effective bulk shear of 45-55+ kt related to the southern fringe of
a pronounced mid-level jet over the southern/central Plains also
exists over the warm sector. An isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds will continue with the ongoing broken line of
thunderstorms. Convection should becoming increasingly elevated with
northward extent in south-central MO, but it may still pose some
hail threat.
..Gleason.. 02/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 35549314 35999285 36619241 36949191 37399147 37929146
37969078 37839034 37159045 36799072 36519142 35949176
35419246 35259301 35549314
