MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2022
Areas affected...southern Arkansas northwest Mississippi and extreme
northern Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291924Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may congeal into a
loosely organized cluster this afternoon and evening. Occasional
down bursts and damaging wind gusts will be possible as storms
propagate south and east. A weather watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
were ongoing along and near a composite front/outflow boundary
across the ArkLaTex. Driven mostly by differential heating within
weak ascent near the boundary, a few stronger multi-cell clusters
are possible with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE present from SPC
mesoanalysis. Additional storm development in the uninhibited and
strongly unstable airmass appears likely through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening. While broader organization
is unlikely, some clustering of the stronger cells may support an
occasional water-loaded downdraft capable of damaging wind gusts
given the high PWAT (2+ inches) airmass. This scenario is reflected
in the latest HRRR guidance which does show some potential for a
loosely organized southeastward propagating cluster this afternoon.
However, given the very limited effective shear (less than 20 kt),
any severe potential will likely be short lived and localized. The
lack of greater storm organization and severe potential suggests a
weather watch is unlikely.
..Lyons/Grams.. 07/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34169398 34219193 34259130 34289077 34199015 33848964
33628967 33168991 33019032 32989090 32939222 32999318
33359396 33449416 34169398
