MD 1632 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0439 PM CDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Areas affected...Parts of the western Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 022139Z - 022315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Sporadic marginal hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible as convection continues spreading across the western
Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A watch is not needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from TBW/MFL shows diurnally-driven
convection spreading slowly westward across parts of the western
Florida Peninsula this afternoon. An upper-level low evident in
water vapor imagery north of the Bahamas is contributing to
seasonably steep midlevel lapse rates and enhanced anvil-level
northerly flow. These factors, coupled with deep tropospheric
moisture (PWs near 2.0 in) and steepened boundary-layer lapse rates
could support marginal hail and locally damaging wet downbursts with
the stronger pulsating updrafts for next couple hours. However,
minimal cloud-layer shear will limit overall convective organization
outside of local congealing of cold pools -- precluding the need for
a watch.
..Weinman/Hart.. 08/02/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 25778136 25918174 26298198 26508225 27568281 27948290
28418277 29118280 29358230 29258180 28698167 28198154
27878147 27378147 27008145 26608139 26208110 25948106
25778136
