MD 1676 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Fri Aug 12 2022
Areas affected...West-central MT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 130037Z - 130200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts will be possible this
evening. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support
a more organized severe wind risk.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized storm cluster has emerged from the
higher terrain of western MT and is now approaching Great Falls and
vicinity. The KTFX sounding was only weakly unstable (MLCAPE less
than 500 J/kg), but large temperature/dewpoint spreads will support
some threat for strong to severe wind gusts as this cluster moves
eastward this evening, even if individual convective elements within
the cluster are not particularly intense.
The relatively limited intensity of this cluster renders the need
for a watch uncertain, but if short-term observational trends
support a more organized severe-wind risk through the evening, watch
issuance for parts of central MT will be possible.
..Dean/Goss.. 08/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...
LAT...LON 47741266 48161206 48371118 48281031 47670988 47220994
46861001 46781036 46721072 46611110 46551165 46821197
47131229 47741266
