MD 1677 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Areas affected...Southern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132022Z - 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
are possible this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Storms have formed over the higher terrain across
southwest Montana in a region of weak upslope flow. Temperatures
east of the mountains have warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s with
dewpoints in the mid-50s. This surface heating, combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates has yielded 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate
mid-level flow is present across the region with effective shear
around 35 knots. This is sufficient for storm organization including
the potential for supercells.
So far, there has been one severe weather report of a 62 mph wind
gust from AWOS site K1CM. Otherwise, most reports have been
sub-severe. Expect this to be the trend from most activity, but it
is possible one or two better developed supercells may form and pose
a longer duration and more consistent severe weather threat along
their path.
The isolated nature of the threat will likely preclude the need for
a watch.
..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/13/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45681090 46371026 46780866 46720748 46330681 45630740
45210842 45040962 45031050 45151102 45681090
