MD 1683 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022
Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 152152Z - 152315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany thunderstorm clusters,
especially where storm cold pools can merge. The severe wind threat
is expected to be isolated and a WW issuance is not currently
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Multicellular thunderstorm clusters have matured over
the past couple of hours and have been congealing southeast of the
Denver metropolitan area per KFTG and MRMS mosaic radar imagery.
While mid-level lapse rates are modest (i.e. 7 C/km), lapse rates in
the 0-3 km layer are exceeding 9 C/km in spots per 21Z mesoanalysis.
Weak deep-layer shear overspreading steep low-level lapse rates
should serve as the impetus for further cold pool mergers with the
ongoing storms, which may support an isolated severe wind threat
through late afternoon. A diffuse outflow boundary is located
roughly along a line from Lincoln/Cheyenne Counties in CO into
west-central KS, with a secondary area of confluence extending to
the CO/NE border. Forward propagation of ongoing cold-pool driven
storms should traverse the area of CO along or north these two
boundaries, as also suggested by the latest run of the HRRR.
..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/15/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39640515 40790383 41190234 41060196 40510188 39810193
39270202 38910226 38810271 38810332 38820442 39640515
