MD 1687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MS…SOUTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022
Areas affected...east-central MS...southwest AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 161906Z - 162100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated gusts 45-60 mph associated with wet microbursts
will be capable of pockets of wind damage. The localized nature of
the wind-damage risk will preclude a severe thunderstorm watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus
field from central MS southeastward into southwest AL. A few
thunderstorms have recently developed within a very moist/unstable
airmass. RAP forecast soundings indicated around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
is present from central MS into southwest AL and PW ranges 1.8-1.9
inches. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 90s with
upper 70s dewpoints. Given the strong heating through early
afternoon, 0-3 km lapse rates have steepened and are now in excess
of 8 deg C/km. Expecting widely scattered thunderstorm coverage by
mid-late afternoon from parts of central MS into southwest AL.
Water-loaded downdrafts will contribute to a localized microburst
risk and associated gusts 45-60 mph with accompanying tree damage.
..Smith/Thompson.. 08/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32848915 31588757 31198755 30928781 31008834 32348963
32718960 32848915
