MD 0177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2023
Areas affected...Parts of eastern MO and southwestern IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 221804Z - 221900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts along with a brief tornado or two are
possible across parts of eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois.
A weather watch is expected in the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough is located near the
Missouri River with a surface cyclone located near Kansas City.
Strong low-level southerly flow has resulted in dewpoints near 60F
across southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. The VWP from
KLSX shows strong deep-layer shear (~60-70 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear)
and strong low-level flow, with 50 kts around 1 km ARL.
Additionally, short-term RAP forecast soundings show relatively weak
buoyancy, though hodographs are expected to become more curved with
time. In this environment, a line of convection is ongoing west of
the St. Louis area. Given strong low-level wind fields, expect a few
damaging gusts along with a tornado or two. A watch is expected
within the next hour.
..Supinie/Guyer.. 02/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 39569117 39919045 40088976 40098926 39698868 39088862
38538865 38108883 37798914 37468949 37298989 37259055
37409135 37779155 38589165 39139145 39569117
