MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022
Areas affected...Southern High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141835Z - 142030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage through
the mid/late afternoon hours, and will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds. This threat will remain too spatially limited to
require watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery over the past 1-2 hours has
exhibited signs of persistent lift across eastern NM into west TX
within the warm conveyor belt associated with a weak upper-level
disturbance over southern CO. Coincidentally, a shallow, but
somewhat widespread, cumulus field has developed across much of the
southern High Plains, indicative of boundary-layer mixing within a
region of modest moisture return (featuring surface dewpoints
largely in the low to mid 50s). This meager moisture is adequate to
support MLCAPE values up to 500 J/kg, and a few deeper towers/weak
thunderstorms have been noted over the past 20 minutes over the
TX/OK Panhandles. These trends suggest that convective initiation is
likely underway and additional thunderstorm development is probable
through the remainder of the afternoon. With surface temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s, dewpoint depressions have
increased to near 30 F, and low-level lapse rates have steepened to
near 9 C/km (per latest RAP mesoanalysis). KAMA VWP observations
reveal poor deep-layer shear, but mean winds near 20-30 knots. With
a favorable thermodynamic regime in place and forecast storm motions
near 25 knots, strong to severe outflow winds appear possible with
developing convection - especially if semi-organized clustering can
occur. Thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain given the broad
forcing for ascent, and will likely negate the need for a watch.
..Moore/Goss.. 09/14/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33510366 35260354 36520312 37300263 37540177 37230138
34970145 32980154 32310229 32020303 32300366 33510366
