MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE INTO FAR WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022
Areas affected...portions of eastern NE into far western IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170732Z - 170830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may briefly produce small to
marginally severe hail through early morning across parts of eastern
Nebraska into far western IA.
DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop along a cold front and
outflow across eastern Nebraska early this morning. Gravity waves
associated with outflow from elevated, weakening convection also are
evident in KOAX radar imagery across northeast Nebraska. These
features will continue to focus thunderstorm development/maintenance
the next few hours in conjunction with modest instability/midlevel
lapse rates. VWP data from KOAX also indicated marginal shear, with
vertically veering winds supporting effective shear magnitudes
around 20-30 kt, resulting in transient rotating updrafts.
Convection will remain elevated, though these transient/loosely
organized clusters may briefly produce small to marginally severe
hail through early morning. The overall severe threat should remain
limited and a watch is not expected.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 09/17/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 41199841 41399800 41519795 41809744 42069728 42469713
42669702 42819665 42879642 42869624 42799607 42489578
41989574 41439591 41139619 40869695 40789757 40859785
41099841 41199841
