MD 1805 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI…FAR NORTHERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022
Areas affected...Southwestern Lower MI...Far Northern IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 201610Z - 201715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
southwestern Lower MI and far northern IN over the next few hours.
Hail will be the primary severe risk.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown intensification over the
past half hour or so within the MCS moving across southern Lake
Michigan. Current estimated storm motion of this system is
southeasterly at 20 to 25 kt, bringing it into far southwestern
Lower MI around 17Z. The thermodynamic environment over this region
is currently stable, but increasing mid-level moisture over the next
hour or two should lead to some elevated instability (generally
above 700 mb). The low levels are expected to remain stable for at
least the next few hours. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft is also
in place, supporting modest deep-layer vertical shear.
This combination of buoyancy and shear may be enough to support
continued thunderstorms as the MCS moves into far southwester Lower
MI and adjacent far northern IN. Given the elevated character of
these storms, the primary severe risk will be hail. A strong
downdraft or two could also penetrate the low-level stability to
create damaging winds at the surface.
..Mosier/Grams.. 09/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 41728662 41938660 42408626 42778624 42858579 42638509
41868521 41478580 41728662
